Now, according to newly published research from the University of Ottawa, this worrying trend threatens U.S. democracy as disinterest sets in for younger candidates, who are skeptical of their election chances.
Daniel Stockemer, a Full Professor in Political Studies in the Faculty of Social Sciences, and his colleague Aksel Sundström from the University of Gothenburg, set out to study the nomination and selection of candidates in the primaries and the age of the candidates who won a seat in the US House of Representatives in 2020. Through the analysis of 1,661 candidates, they found structural factors play a key role in this under-representation.
“The relative absence of young adults in politics could contribute to what we call the vicious cycle of political alienation among the young. It is marked by low numbers of younger people in parliaments, low voter turnouts and political disenchantment – factors that tend to feed and amplify each other,” said Stockemer, who is the Konrad Adenauer Research Chair in Empirical Democracy Studies.
Congressman Maxwell Frost, the 25-year-old Democrat from Florida, can be considered an anomaly and an example of the under-representation of young adults in U.S. politics, where a lack of candidates and electoral support means the 18 to 35 demographic represents 10% of the candidate pool.
A preference for lawyers, the lack of campaign spending limits, the dominance of senior politicians in the field, and the incumbency advantage make it very hard for young politicians to gain a nomination.
“We see a strong connection between age and what we call election capital. This includes experience of previous elections and politics, support from the parties and being able to fund their campaigns. The parties often place younger candidates in electoral districts where they have little chance of winning, and this is problematic,” said Stockemer, whose research focuses on key challenges facing representative democracies.
“We see a strong connection between age and what we call election capital. This includes experience of previous elections and politics, support from the parties and being able to fund their campaigns...”
Daniel Stockemer
— Full Professor in Political Studies in the Faculty of Social Sciences
“In election campaigns, the younger candidates fared worse than the older candidates. The average age of the winners of primaries was 54, and the age of those who were ultimately elected to the House of Representatives was 58 on average.”
With younger candidates skeptical about their chances of making waves in the political arena, one way to break this incumbency advantage would be to install term limits, which could provide a more even playing field for youth seeking to run for office.
“Both Democrats and Republicans nominated a relatively small percentage of younger people in favour of middle-aged candidates. The average age of the selected candidates was 51.5 years and only about 11 per cent of all the candidates were aged 35 or younger. It would be interesting to explore how the lack of limits on campaign spending and the age requirement to run, which is set at 25, hurt young candidates,” said Stockemer.
“According to a November 2022 poll, 47% of respondents said politics would improve if there were more younger people in politics. Another survey in the U.S. indicated nine out of 10 Americans feel that 75 should be the maximum age for serving as president.”
Stockemer believes this research is relevant beyond the U.S.’ borders, too, particularly in countries with contrasting institutional settings, including a different electoral system type, and those dominated by dynasties.
The research is based on the following studies:
‘Young adults' under-representation in elections to the U.S. House of Representatives,’ published in Electoral Studies, Volume 81, February 2023. DOI: 10.1016/j.electstud.2022.102554
Youth without Representation: The Absence of Young Adults in Parliaments, Cabinets, and Candidacies. University of Michigan Press, 2022.
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