Importance of oil and gas to Canada's current and future economy hits new high; majority of Canadians don’t want to align with the US on energy or climate policies

The research gauged the opinions among Canadians on oil and gas, more particularly how important they are to Canada’s current and future economy as well as expanding oil and gas exports for a more secure global energy supply and to help combat climate change worldwide. Questions were also asked on the level of government respondents trust most for creating a positive environment for investors building energy infrastructure, government performance in decision-making on energy and climate change and whether Canada should align its energy or climate policies with those of the United States.

1. Oil and gas increasingly seen as highly important to Canada’s current and future economy: Close to nine in ten Canadians rate oil and gas as important to Canada’s current economy (score of 7-10 out of 10) (88%) which is a significant increase from the previous wave in August 2024 (79%), and an all-time high since tracking began in 2020. Additionally, an increasing proportion see oil and gas as important to the future economy, with seven in ten (70%) giving this a score of 7-10, up 11 percentage points since August 2024 and a 29-point increase from the benchmark wave in 2020.

2. Canadians say oil and gas continue to contribute to economy: In terms of why they feel oil and gas are important to Canada’s current economy, Canadians most often mention they contribute to and are tied to the Canadian and provincial economies (42%). The most cited reason for viewing oil and gas as important to Canada’s future economy is that they remain a large part and contributor to Canada’s economy (30%) and that switching to clean energy is far from ready to replace fossil fuels and there is still a demand (22%).

3. Canadians agree Canada should expand oil and gas exports to increase global energy security: More than six in ten Canadians agree (36%) or somewhat agree (26%) that Canada should expand oil and gas exports to help the world have more secure energy supplies (a 10-percentage point increase from January 2024 –31% agree; 21% somewhat agree). Of note, men are more likely than women to agree/somewhat agree (70% of men; 56% of women) that Canada should expand oil and gas exports to help the world have more secure energy supplies.

4. Canada’s oil & gas exports seen as a possible contributor to combatting climate change by majority of Canadians: A majority of Canadians agree (35%) or somewhat agree (31%) that exports from Canada’s oil and gas sector can contribute to combatting global climate change by displacing energy sources that are more damaging to the climate. This is consistent with previous waves of research. Of note, residents of the Prairies are more likely (79%) than those from Quebec (51%) to agree or somewhat agree with this, while men are more likely to agree or somewhat agree (72%) than women (60%).

5. Canadians more likely to think the government does a poor job at providing policy/regulatory environment for energy investments rather than a good job: Consistent with the previous waves, Canadians are three times more likely to rate the job done by governments at providing a clear, predictable and competitive policy and regulatory environment for investors building energy infrastructure to help Canada meet its climate change targets as very poor (23%) or poor (20%) rather than very good (3%) or good (10%).

6. Reason for poor or very poor job cited as government moving slowly and creating red tape: Those who say governments do a poor or very poor job most often mention that governments in Canada are slow and create red tape (22%), while those who believe they are doing a good or very good job most often say they are taking actions and moving in the right direction (24%).

7. Canadians divided over whether they trust the federal or their provincial government more to create a positive environment for energy investments in infrastructure: About four in ten Canadians each say they trust the federal government (41%) or their provincial government (38%) more in terms of creating a positive environment for investors building energy infrastructure to help Canada meet its climate change targets, while one in five are unsure (21%).

8. Canadians more likely to say federal and provincial governments do a poor job rather than a good job at cooperating: Consistent with previous waves, Canadians are six times more likely to say that federal and provincial governments do a very poor/poor job of cooperating on decision-making on energy (21% very poor; 32% poor) rather than a very good/good job (1% very good; 8% good). Findings are similar regarding cooperating on decision-making on climate change with just over half who say governments do a very poor (24%) or poor job (29%), compared to very good (1%) or good (8%).

9. Three in five Canadians believe Canada should not align its climate or energy policies with those of the united states: Close to two thirds of Canadians say Canada should somewhat not (11%) or not align (53%) its climate policies with those of the United States, while just over six in ten say the same about its energy policies (14% not align; 47% somewhat not align). Residents of the Prairies (36%) and Ontario (30%) are more likely to want Canada to align or somewhat align with the United States on climate policies than residents of Quebec (15%); the results are similar for energy policies (Prairies: 38%; Ontario: 32%; Quebec: 17%). Politically right-leaning Canadians are more likely to favour alignment on energy (60%) or climate policies (59%) than left-leaning Canadians (9% energy; 9% climate).

10. Canadians who want alignment cite need to be allies; those who do not mention current administration and lack of trust: Canadians who want Canada’s energy policies to have at least some alignment with the US most often say this is because it is easier to partner with the US and we need help (22%), as well as being helpful to improve the economy (17%). Those who don’t want alignment mention that the current US administration’s only focus is drilling and profit and they disregard climate change (29%), that Trump and the US cannot be trusted (18%) and that Canada needs to remain independent (17%). Similarly, when asked why Canada should align on climate policies, the most frequently mentioned reason was that we should be allies and are partners in other things (21%) and that we should have a ‘North America’ approach and are the same continent (16%). Canadians who want little to no alignment say it’s because of Trump and the new administration (36%) and that the US doesn’t believe in climate change and don’t have climate change policies (28%).